Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.664040 2.829104 3.009365 3.222929 3.471943 3.756988 4.113984
2025-03-09 2.428726 2.645732 2.896980 3.216127 3.621763 4.138009 4.880230
2025-03-16 2.260610 2.499147 2.785084 3.164573 3.675797 4.379332 5.514226
2025-03-23 2.181555 2.444040 2.768902 3.218588 3.861238 4.824849 6.617721
2025-03-30 2.066941 2.332501 2.667038 3.141403 3.843697 4.956049 7.248616
2025-04-06 1.966409 2.230659 2.567846 3.054569 3.794824 5.019700 7.779942
2025-04-13 1.890924 2.155745 2.497862 3.000392 3.785631 5.145754 8.540357
2025-04-20 1.859826 2.135975 2.499370 3.047550 3.941372 5.612159 10.681782
2025-04-27 1.848913 2.141398 2.534590 3.146790 4.199242 6.379583 15.659486
2025-05-04 1.809561 2.105994 2.509464 3.149612 4.286769 6.810639 21.464538
2025-05-11 1.773860 2.073574 2.486176 3.152435 4.373877 7.283352 34.226254
2025-05-18 1.716384 2.008759 2.412490 3.067547 4.278980 7.224106 40.205924
2025-05-25 1.685203 1.980687 2.393262 3.074491 4.376034 7.802912 286.366861
2025-06-01 1.652605 1.949372 2.367656 3.068824 4.447742 8.365253 NaN
2025-06-08 1.611967 1.905097 2.320353 3.022177 4.424690 8.591080 NaN
2025-06-15 1.598085 1.897932 2.328222 3.071059 4.620135 9.853105 NaN
2025-06-22 1.556582 1.849831 2.271373 3.001181 4.531990 9.801807 NaN
2025-06-29 1.515056 1.800628 2.211225 2.922341 4.415054 9.566240 NaN
2025-07-06 1.482571 1.763616 2.168677 2.873031 4.363883 9.652297 NaN
2025-07-13 1.473352 1.759754 2.177023 2.915958 4.541397 11.160305 NaN
2025-07-20 1.474769 1.771211 2.209586 3.006064 4.860026 14.486665 NaN
2025-07-27 1.457282 1.754326 2.196402 3.008622 4.948216 16.443639 NaN
2025-08-03 1.440654 1.738197 2.183727 3.011180 5.037825 19.001629 NaN